A strengthening El Niño event has put India among countries facing high or very high health risks. According to a new World Health Organisation (WHO) assessment, there are increased concerns over heat-related illnesses, vector-borne diseases and water insecurity.
The warning has particular relevance for J&K. Kashmir has experienced an unusually warm start to September. Temperatures at several stations are running above normal. Srinagar recorded a maximum of around 32°C during the recent spell. India Meteorological Department has reported maximum temperatures 2–5°C above normal at more than one place in Kashmir.
Director Meteorology, IMD J&K, Mukhtar Ahmed said that September temperatures have been above normal. He, however, said the deviation has not been alarming. “The beginning has been hotter than what we anticipate for September,” he said.
For Srinagar, IMD’s 1991–2020 climatological normal shows average September temperatures of 13.1°C for the minimum and 27.6°C for the maximum. The month is usually cooler than the peak summer period. This September, however, has started considerably warmer. From September 1–8, Srinagar’s daily mean temperatures averaged about 25°C, around 3°C above normal. The maximum temperatures reached 32.5°C on September 3 and 31.8°C on September 8. The persistence of daytime temperatures around 30–32°C is therefore a notable departure from the usual September pattern.
In Jammu, the IMD 1991–2020 September normal is substantially warmer, at about 23.2°C minimum and 32.8°C maximum. Jammu is experiencing a warmer-than-usual start to September, although the departure is much less striking than in Kashmir.
On September 5, WHO released its Global Public Health Situation Analysis – El Niño 2026. It identifies India among countries at high or very high health risk as El Niño alters weather patterns in many South Asian countries including India. This part of the earth is experiencing drier-than-normal conditions, along with above-normal heat during August-October.
For J&K, especially Jammu division, the concern is not limited to heat, as rainfall patterns getting erratic have an impact on vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria. WHO, however, has cautioned that the current rise in such diseases cannot automatically be attributed to El Niño. The phenomenon acts as a risk modifier. The effects depend on local weather and population vulnerability.
The Union Health Ministry’s National Centre for Vector Borne Diseases Control maintains J&K among the areas monitored for dengue.
WHO has also warned that higher temperatures can increase the risk of impact on cardiovascular, respiratory, kidney and metabolic conditions. Pregnant women and newborns are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. Changes in rainfall and water availability also affect food production and nutrition.
The warning comes as India’s weather outlook itself points to a warmer September. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for the month. The average maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal. The agency has also said the strengthening El Niño is contributing to the changing monsoon pattern in India.
The developing El Niño is expected to remain a concern beyond the monsoon, as the event could persist until February 2027.
