Jammu and Kashmir’s peak electricity demand has crossed 3,300 megawatts (MW), reaching 3,325 MW in 2025-26, while the Joint Electricity Regulatory Commission (JERC), which oversees the electricity sector in J&K and Ladakh, has projected a slower increase in demand over the next three years.
The figures are part of JERC’s examination of the business plan and tariff proposal of the J&K Power Transmission Corporation Limited (JKPTCL) for the three years from 2026-27 to 2028-29.
JKPTCL had projected a faster increase in electricity demand, using an annual growth rate of 3.08 per cent. On that basis, it had estimated peak demand at 4,033 MW in 2026-27, 4,154 MW in 2027-28 and 4,278 MW in 2028-29.
JERC has instead adopted a lower annual growth rate of 1.97 per cent after examining actual figures reported by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).
According to the actual CEA data cited by the Commission, peak electricity demand in J&K and Ladakh increased from 3,076 MW in 2021-22 to 3,137 MW in 2022-23, 3,181 MW in 2023-24, 3,236 MW in 2024-25 and 3,325 MW in 2025-26.
In simple terms, the highest amount of electricity required in the region increased by 249 MW over five years.
Peak demand is the maximum electricity requirement recorded at a particular time. It is important for the transmission system because power lines and substations need enough capacity to carry electricity during the hours when consumption is at its highest.
The CEA figures also show that the region did not always have enough electricity available to meet its peak requirement.
In 2021-22, peak demand was 3,076 MW while peak supply was 2,826 MW, leaving a gap of 250 MW. The shortfall declined to 170 MW in 2022-23 and 48 MW in 2023-24.
The gap widened sharply in 2024-25, when demand reached 3,236 MW but only 2,836 MW was met, leaving a shortfall of 400 MW, or 12.4 per cent.
The situation improved in 2025-26, when peak demand of 3,325 MW was fully met, according to the actual CEA figures cited by JERC.
JERC said JKPTCL had based its original forecast on the CEA’s Load Generation Balance Report. The Commission pointed out that actual figures were also available in the CEA’s monthly Executive Summary on the power sector and found these figures more appropriate for calculating the recent demand trend.
Based on the actual figures, the Commission calculated a compound annual growth rate of 1.97 per cent for peak demand over the five-year period. It has therefore taken 3,325 MW, the 2025-26 peak, as the base figure for future planning.
Using that growth rate, peak demand would rise to around 3,391 MW in 2026-27, 3,457 MW in 2027-28 and 3,525 MW in 2028-29.
This is significantly lower than JKPTCL’s original projection of 4,278 MW by 2028-29. The difference between the two estimates is around 753 MW.
JERC also noted that the peak demand recorded during 2026-27 up to the time of its assessment was 3,063 MW, below the 3,325 MW peak recorded in the previous financial year. Despite this, the Commission retained 3,325 MW as the base figure because the overall trend in peak demand during the preceding five years remained upward.
For the common consumer, the numbers point to a simple trend: J&K is using more electricity than it did five years ago, particularly during periods of highest consumption, but the electricity panel does not expect demand to rise as rapidly as JKPTCL had estimated.
The difference is important for the transmission network. JKPTCL is responsible for carrying electricity through the high-voltage network to different parts of J&K and ensuring that transmission infrastructure is capable of handling the maximum load.
If demand increases, more capacity may be required in the form of transmission lines, substations and associated equipment. But building infrastructure far ahead of actual requirements can also lead to higher costs. This is why demand forecasting plays an important role in deciding the pace and scale of investment.
The recent figures also show that rising demand by itself does not automatically result in a power shortage. In 2025-26, the region recorded its highest peak demand in the five-year period considered by JERC and still managed to meet the entire requirement at peak.
At the same time, the 400-MW shortfall in 2024-25 shows how quickly a gap can emerge when available supply is unable to keep pace with demand.
JERC’s decision therefore provides JKPTCL with a more conservative basis for planning its transmission requirements during the current three-year period. The Commission has not said that demand will fall; rather, it expects the increase to be more moderate than the transmission utility had projected.
The final trajectory will also depend on how electricity consumption develops across homes, businesses, industry and other sectors, as well as on the availability of power and the capacity of the transmission network to deliver it when demand peaks.
For now, the central figure is clear: J&K’s peak electricity requirement has reached 3,325 MW, and JERC expects it to increase to around 3,525 MW by 2028-29 under the approved growth assumption.
